Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.099781 0.113933 0.129302 0.147221 0.167533 0.189831 0.216161
2026-01-18 0.081043 0.100078 0.122330 0.150226 0.184231 0.224305 0.275091
2026-01-25 0.063020 0.083700 0.109581 0.144274 0.189487 0.246333 0.323163
2026-02-01 0.048694 0.069338 0.096915 0.136308 0.190995 0.264076 0.369000
2026-02-08 0.038951 0.059284 0.088184 0.132040 0.196671 0.288145 0.427134
2026-02-15 0.031237 0.050688 0.080030 0.127206 0.200797 0.310778 0.487083
2026-02-22 0.026788 0.046181 0.077125 0.129649 0.216063 0.351927 0.580840
2026-03-01 0.021861 0.039981 0.070517 0.125151 0.219781 0.376012 0.652133
2026-03-08 0.018140 0.035111 0.065243 0.121932 0.225041 0.403330 0.732994
2026-03-15 0.015161 0.030991 0.060542 0.118875 0.230044 0.430915 0.818593
2026-03-22 0.013464 0.028966 0.059297 0.121920 0.246558 0.481147 0.952209
2026-03-29 0.011657 0.026367 0.056497 0.121482 0.256380 0.520501 1.071549
2026-04-05 0.010211 0.024296 0.054511 0.122613 0.270087 0.570468 1.221587
2026-04-12 0.009073 0.022677 0.053193 0.124956 0.286807 0.629208 1.399063
2026-04-19 0.007575 0.019900 0.048831 0.119846 0.286710 0.653415 1.508716
2026-04-26 0.006233 0.017204 0.044135 0.113094 0.281783 0.666586 1.596863
2026-05-03 0.005291 0.015313 0.040993 0.109460 0.283497 0.694836 1.723680
2026-05-10 0.004478 0.013581 0.037905 0.105375 0.283414 0.718987 1.845038
2026-05-17 0.004050 0.012827 0.037212 0.107369 0.299005 0.782968 2.072677
2026-05-24 0.003458 0.011450 0.034561 0.103589 0.298910 0.808401 2.208701
2026-05-31 0.002991 0.010343 0.032444 0.100885 0.301243 0.840399 2.366824
2026-06-07 0.002597 0.009367 0.030507 0.098322 0.303527 0.872666 2.530933
2026-06-14 0.002395 0.008982 0.030278 0.100842 0.320923 0.948384 2.825067